Damon Hill is almost certain he knows who Red Bull will replace Sergio Perez with

Liam Lawson will "almost certainly" get the nod to replace even if do spend millions to sign Franco Colapinto.

That is the view of who believes the team will promote internally when looking for a new driver to partner . Perez currently holds that seat but, despite having signed a new contract only this year, his poor form in 2024 has led to Red Bull reconsidering their 2025 plans.

has already been promoted to this year when was axed from sister team RB in September. His strong performances since then have only strengthened calls for Perez to be replaced.

Red Bull have been exploring their options for if they decide to part ways with the Mexican. Colapinto emerged as their top target during the triple header of races across North and South America and they have been in negotiations with over a buyout fee.

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Mirror Sport understands an offer of around £15million was turned down by Williams who want more to allow the Argentine to leave their programme permanently, which is what Red Bull want. Some reports have estimated that Colapinto's current employers are holding out for a fee of around £20m.

Even if they do shell out for the Argentine, Hill believes he would join the sister squad and home-grown talent Lawson would get the nod to replace Perez. "I would have put there but that is not going to happen, so I think it is Liam Lawson, almost certainly, because they have got experience of him," he said.

"This is where you get into the murky of, there may be some big money and, if that is the case, then it could be Colapinto. But I think he is a little bit inexperienced so you might see him at Racing Bulls."

Hill's assertion comes after Sky Sports F1 colleague shared his opinion that Perez is approaching the end of his Red Bull career. "I think it certainly is [his last Mexico City Grand Prix] in a Red Bull - that would be my gut feeling," he said after the 34-year-old's home race last month.

"He has had a great career and I am sure he would like it to last a little bit longer. But we are seeing so many young guns coming into the teams now and doing a great job. And, obviously, Red Bull is staring third in the constructors' championship right in the face now.

"You cannot afford, and I am not saying this [only] about Sergio, no team can afford a passenger. So, for 2025, they need both drivers in tip-top form and, unless he can do something miraculous in the next five weekends of Formula 1 racing, that will not be him."