Hurricane Kirk 'could bring 50mm of seriously heavy rain to UK' - exactly where could be hit

Hurricane Kirk is the latest storm to develop in the Atlantic Ocean - and it could make landfall in Britain within days.

If it continued on its trajectory, the weather front could reach the southern end of the UK by mid-to-late next week, it's been claimed. It would also bring with it up to two inches of rain on already saturated ground. The Met Office previously revealed that Kirk was forecast to move into the cooler waters of the Atlantic Ocean, which would dampen its power. However, the low pressure system could still make its way northeast, and come close to - or even cross over - the UK, it said.

Up to 50mm of rain would likely fall in the UK if Kirk did reach our shores - a similar to the amount of rainfall seen during the height of last week's downpours. Wales, the Midlands, and southern England were most likely to be affected, according to the University of Reading's meteorologist, Dr Peter Inness.

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He told the Mirror: "There are several scenarios, one of which is that Hurricane Kirk does track across the UK toward the middle to later half of next week, sort of Wednesday or Thursday. If it does, then probably the main issue is rain, with this particular storm. There could be some very heavy rain over southern England, the Midlands, and Wales. Obviously with the current situation where everywhere is pretty wet already anyway, I think that would be the major problem that this storm could present us - but only in that scenario where it comes over us in the first place."

He added there is still a 50/50 chance whether Kirk reaches the UK. Forecasters would be in a better position to predict the hurricane's path by the end of this weekend, or even early next week.

"If it does reach us, it will be windy along the south coast - but the main issue will be heavy rain, particularly with the areas that have already been flooded and the groundwater levels are still very high," said Dr Inness. "It could be as heavy as the rain we had at the beginning of last week, if it does come over us.

"Some of the forecasts are saying we could get another 40mm of rain over southern England; 50mm in some places. That's a lot of rain. Those are serious rainfall amounts."

Kirk is currently in the tropical Atlantic around 1,150 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Its maximum sustained winds reached 120mph this morning, making it a strong Category 3 hurricane. It was moving northwest at 12 mph (19kph). A gradual turn toward the north-northwest and then northward was expected this week.

The Met Office warned that heavy rain and strong winds would follow if Kirk continued on its path toward the UK. Deputy Chief Meteorologist Tony Wisson warned: "It is expected to move north into cooler waters, where it will lose a lot of its strength, but maintain its identity as a moderately deep low pressure system.

"There are complex processes involved when a hurricane undergoes what is known as 'extra tropical transition'. This results in a lot of variability in the forecast, which means that predictability is low at longer lead times. Therefore, confidence in any one scenario is very low. There are a few apparent scenarios. One scenario suggests that this low pressure system could come close to, or even cross, the UK by Wednesday or Thursday next week. This would lead to heavy rain and strong winds in places."

Another scenario is for the low pressure system to stay further west in the mid-Atlantic, keeping much of the associated rain and wind away from the UK. Other possibilities are also apparent, but we need to wait until we have more information, to determine which scenario will win out."