Trudeau's rant against India could see 20% dip in student interest in Canada, say industry experts

The ongoing diplomatic tension between India and Canada could lead to a significant shift in student preferences regarding the most popular study abroad destinations and the strategies employed by platforms providing these services. Industry players predict a decline of 15-20% interest in Canada, pushing students toward alternative countries such as Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland, and the US, which could take a bigger share of the market.

“Several agencies have reported a 30% drop in inquiries concerning Canadian universities over the past couple of months. To counterbalance this, agencies are currently specializing in diversifying their portfolios,” said Go Study’s CEO Ranjit Kumar C who runs an overseas educational consultancy headquartered in Hyderabad. He added that Canada is a traditional market for platforms, accounting for 40–60% of their business. “This tremendous dependency means that any significant drop in interest could lead to a substantial economic hit.”

Study abroad platforms emphasized the need for diplomatic efforts to prioritize Indian students' interests and ensure the continuity of educational opportunities. According to data from Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) 2023, a total of 278,250 students received study permits, accounting for 40.7% of the total international student population.

“The peak season has passed, so the political developments are not impacting the current set of students who are going or have already moved to Canada for their education. We’ll have to wait and see for the year 2025,” explained Sonal Kapoor, Global Chief Commercial Officer of Prodigy Finance, which enables financing for international postgraduate students.

Around 10-15% of the requests the company receives are for Canadian universities; however, Kapoor emphasized that their major markets continue to be the US and UK, and they expect the overall outflow of Indian students in 2025 to increase by 20 to 30%.

Ripple Effects on Associated Industries
With Indian students being a crucial demographic for Canadian institutions, the ripple effects could impact not only the education sector but also associated industries, housing, and part-time employment, highlighted GoStudy’s CEO.

According to a recent study by University Living, which provides student accommodation in Canada, the US, UK, Australia, and Ireland, the average expenditure per Indian student in Canada is USD 39,000 for the 2023-24 academic year. “Indian students are a vital part of Canada’s higher education landscape, contributing nearly USD 11.7 billion, as noted in the India Student Mobility Report 2023-24. This investment highlights the need for diplomatic efforts to maintain continuity in visa processes and student welfare programs, ensuring that students can pursue their education without undue concern," said Saurabh Arora, Founder of University Living.

GradRight, an ed-fintech firm focusing on loan disbursements, university partnerships, and student inquiries, stated that their revenues come from marketing partner universities in India and financing loans via their partner banks. “In situations like these, the marketing leaders at reputable Canadian universities tend to increase their marketing spend since it builds more traction for them. So, we anticipate a rise in our revenues,” said Aman Singh, Co-founder of the company. He added that Canada’s loss could be the USA’s gain, which would pivot GradRight’s revenues in the fourth quarter.