Pawn or kingmaker? Voters will decide Engineer Rashid fate today

BARAMULLA/SOPORE: With J&K elections cutting to the chase, North Kashmir will determine if the "X-factor" label to Engineer Rashid was justified or his appeal fizzled out in the face of resurgence of National Conference and People's Conference (PC) in his stronghold.

Voting on Tuesday will be key to who forms govt in the post-370 UT, with BJP counting on a fragmented verdict to cobble the numbers through minor players - which makes it consequential if Rashid could rebuff the rivals' frontal accusation that he was a "BJP proxy".

Of the 40 seats in the final phase, 16 fall in Kashmir districts of Baramulla, Bandipora, and Kupwara.

Rashid's caravan in the last week moved to the constituency that introduced him nationally as the sensation by delivering him Baramulla Lok Sabha seat from prison, crashing NC's Omar Abdullah to a shock defeat as also Sajad Lone of PC.

Rashid and his Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) have been riding the LS win to claim authenticity as the fighter of Kashmir's cause, contrasting his continuing over-five-year incarceration in Tihar jail with the free NC and PDP leaderships. But NC-PDP's charge that Rashid had been unleashed on the assembly battleground as part of BJP's strategy to divide votes of Kashmir to dent the mainstream parties is visibly troubling the maverick.

Across the North, it is not difficult to find people questioning why was Rashid released for 22 days to campaign when he had not been allowed to attend Parliament.

In the North mix are some strong names as independents like PDP renegade Muzaffar Baig in Baramulla, and some Jamaat-e-Islami backed nominees, besides PC - making the fight unpredictable. Rashid's brother is contesting from his erstwhile assembly seat of Langate. Also in focus is NC's immense reach through organisational muscle and resources.

Linking the North with Central and South regions that went to polls earlier was the echo of intense unemployment and business downturn as key voter concerns among the young and old, presenting a strange mix with the emotive issues of Article 370 and "secularism". Kamaljeet Singh in Jhelum market in Baramulla said "business has come to a halt", a representative sentiment repeated by young Faisal who sells clothes and water bottles.

But it is Rashid's status as the son of the soil that evoked the strongest verdict.

There are diehard supporters like Showkat Tantray who runs a modest dhaba in Sangrama and is backing Advocate Murasaleen of AIP. "Rashid is good," he remarked. But Shakir Bhat, an engineer working with a reputed construction company and lunching there, said NC was strong in the polls.

Haji Abdul Majid Lone near Baramulla put his bet on NC as he opined that Rashid had been "exposed" by his release. Lone voted for Rashid in LS polls, but added his victory was the result of his "crying children" who reasoned that a win will spare him the prison.

"I voted for the first time in 2024 LS polls," said the 70-year-old, who "retired as joint director, planning", in J&K. "Rashid's incarceration and his children's emotive campaign swept the youth."

A 67-year-old retired engineer from the irrigation department said Rashid was seen as a victim of BJP in the national contest, but will lose seats in the local polls. "There are deep suspicions about why he was abruptly released from jail," he said.

A young cobbler in Sopore market bet on NC, as did a group of five Gujjars who also mentioned PC as an option. Rashid's son "lied" and got an emotional vote, they said, on their way to Srinagar to donate blood to a relative.

What emerged clearly from North was that youth had powered Rashid's LS charge, but his release has raised doubts and may have loosened the grip over the youngsters who vote emotionally.