Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris by over 20 percentage points on Polymarket which is a decentralized prediction market platform that allows users to trade on the possible outcome of world events. On this platform Donald Trump's winning possibility is 62 per cent while Kamala Harris' is 38 per cent. On being asked why people are betting $2.1 billion on Trump's win, the former president said they got to know Kamala Harris. "That she's incompetent. That she's a Marxist. You can say communist. A lot of people don't know what is a Marxist," Donald Trump said.
The Polymarket surge in favor of Donald Trump is reportedly manipulated. One of the four accounts on Polymarket that have fueled speculation over their large bets has taken even bigger wagers. The four top accounts on the cryptocurrency-prediction exchange are owned by non-Americans, Reuters reported.
The Polymarket bets are sharply different from the other opinion polls which predict a very close fight between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
These four overseas accounts placed more than $30 million worth of bets on Donald Trump as Polymarket does not allow Americans to make US election bets on the exchange and all Polymarkets users are international. Reuters said it did not immediately determine whether the four accounts represent a single trader or many.
Given the size and impact of the bets, Polymarket is investigating the activity in partnership with outside experts, the report said. A $30 million bet on Trump on Polymarket would be equivalent to about 1% of trading volume on the platform related to the presidential race.
The NYT polls on October 21 was tied as it said: "With two weeks to go, the polls of the presidential election are starting to run out of room to get any closer. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are essentially tied — with neither candidate ahead by even a single percentage point — in The New York Times’s polling averages of five critical battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and North Carolina."
"As of Monday morning, neither candidate even “leads” in North Carolina, Pennsylvania or Michigan by more than two-tenths of a percentage point. Neither can realistically win the presidency without winning at least one of these states," it said.
The Polymarket surge in favor of Donald Trump is reportedly manipulated. One of the four accounts on Polymarket that have fueled speculation over their large bets has taken even bigger wagers. The four top accounts on the cryptocurrency-prediction exchange are owned by non-Americans, Reuters reported.
The Polymarket bets are sharply different from the other opinion polls which predict a very close fight between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Q: "Why do you think there's been such a swing in the odds of you winning over VP Harris?"
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 21, 2024
TRUMP: "They got to know her. That she's incompetent. That she's a Marxist." pic.twitter.com/6pVDjpAl3C
These four overseas accounts placed more than $30 million worth of bets on Donald Trump as Polymarket does not allow Americans to make US election bets on the exchange and all Polymarkets users are international. Reuters said it did not immediately determine whether the four accounts represent a single trader or many.
Given the size and impact of the bets, Polymarket is investigating the activity in partnership with outside experts, the report said. A $30 million bet on Trump on Polymarket would be equivalent to about 1% of trading volume on the platform related to the presidential race.
The NYT polls on October 21 was tied as it said: "With two weeks to go, the polls of the presidential election are starting to run out of room to get any closer. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are essentially tied — with neither candidate ahead by even a single percentage point — in The New York Times’s polling averages of five critical battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and North Carolina."
"As of Monday morning, neither candidate even “leads” in North Carolina, Pennsylvania or Michigan by more than two-tenths of a percentage point. Neither can realistically win the presidency without winning at least one of these states," it said.
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